Here is the expected petrol price for February
Mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) points to a significant hike in petrol and diesel prices next month, with a weaker rand and volatile oil prices working against motorists.
The year started off with a kick in the teeth for motorists, with petrol and diesel prices both increasing at the start of January.
This trend is set to continue into February, with petrol prices projected to climb between 75 cents and 81 cents per litre, while diesel prices are expected to jump around 89 cents per litre.
These are the current projections:
- Petrol 93: increase of 81 cents per litre
- Petrol 95: increase of 75 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): increase of 90 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): increase of 88 cents per litre
- Illuminating paraffin: increase of 73 cents per litre
The CEF does not present daily snapshot data for LP Gas.
The Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources has noted that its daily snapshots are not predictive and do not encompass other possible modifications, such as slate levy adjustments or retail margin changes.
The department determines these adjustments, considering various factors, at the end of the month.
Domestic fuel costs are primarily governed by the rand/dollar exchange rate and international oil prices. In South Africa, the fuel price is adjusted on the first Wednesday of every month based on these two factors.
In January, the rand has weakened significantly against the dollar—pushing past R19/$ at one stage—while international product prices—directed by oil prices—have also leaned higher in recent weeks.
Both factors are contributing to under-recoveries in fuel prices, leading to a likely price hike.
Rand/Dollar Exchange
The rand has had a rough start to 2025, weakening significantly against the US dollar along with other emerging market currencies.
The rand has been under pressure since the start of the year, hitting January at R18.78/$, after reaching R17.60/$ in December.
The local unit weekend even further this week, reaching 19.23/$ on Monday.
The weakening has been driven largely by news out of the United States, with the incoming presidency of Donald Trump adding uncertainty to global markets—pushing risk-seeking to the side—while US economic data also held firm.
One of the key results of this combination is that the US Fed has driven a narrative that interest rate cuts will not be coming hard and fast at all, with analysts now pencilling in only one cut of 25 bps before year-end.
According to Investec chief economist Annabel Bishop, not only does this have a direct impact on the rand, it also has a knock-on effect through our own Reserve Bank rate decisions.
She noted that the SARB’s next policy move is expected to be a small 25bp cut at the end of January, but this will shrink the rate differential between the US and SA, weakening the rand.
The SARB may err on the side of caution and also delay further rate cuts until the US Fed cuts again—which may only be at the end of the year.
Global Oil
Oil prices have climbed significantly at the start of the year, lifting from close to $70 a barrel in December to almost $80 a barrel in mid-January.
According to Bishop, oil prices have risen due to US sanctions on Russian oil, while US economic conditions have held up, displaying solid growth in the world’s largest economy, further supporting oil prices.
More caution lies ahead as the Trump presidency comes into office.
“The incoming Trump administration on 20th January is expected to bolster US growth on deregulation and tax cuts, with quicker growth supporting demand for oil,” Bishop said.
“Broad sweeping changes influencing foreign policy and relations are also anticipated.”
Oil markets will also be kept in check by demand from China.
The latest World Energy Outlook by the International Energy Agency noted that China has been the engine of oil market growth in recent decades, but that engine is now switching over to electricity.
While oil prices this year risk being volatile, Bishop said that the Trump presidency is also expected to see some easing in tensions with Russia, which could see some subsidence in oil prices from current levels.
This is how prices could reflect in February (Diesel prices reflect wholesale, pump prices will differ):
| Inland | January Official | February Expected |
| 93 Petrol | R21.34 | R22.15 |
| 95 Petrol | R21.59 | R22.34 |
| Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) | R19.29 | R20.19 |
| Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) | R19.44 | R20.32 |
| Illuminating Paraffin | R13.26 | R13.99 |
| Coastal | January Official | February Expected |
| 93 Petrol | R20.55 | R21.36 |
| 95 Petrol | R20.80 | R21.55 |
| Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) | R18.50 | R19.40 |
| Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) | R18.68 | R19.56 |
| Illuminating Paraffin | R12.26 | R12.99 |