Trump, trade tariffs and a golden opportunity – the strategic role South Africa will play in G20 discussions in the next year
President Cyril Ramaphosa addressing the media during the launch of the G20 presidency in Parliament, Cape Town . (Photo : Phando Jikelo/ Parliament of SA)
03 Dec 2024 4
President Cyril Ramaphosa launched South Africa’s G20 presidency in Parliament today after the presidency was handed over to him during the G20 summit in Brazil last month. From incoming USA president Donald Trump’s attendance to what’s in it for South Africa, we answer all your G20 questions.
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Question: Will US President-elect Donald Trump attend the G20 Heads of State summit in South Africa in 2025?
Answer: By G20 tradition, he should. But his presidency is shaping as a game-changer not only for US politics, but for the world too. Trump has promised to raise sky-high tariff barriers, so taking out a key plank of relatively free global trade the G20 was formed to protect in 1999 after the global financial crisis.
At the weekend, Trump posted that should BRICS countries, of which South Africa is one, create a common currency (it isn’t on the cards) or establish mechanisms to trade in BRICS currencies, then the nine-bloc group could expect 100% tariffs on its imports to the US. Daily Maverick has reported that South Africa has denied there are currently plans afoot for a BRICS currency.
The Department of International Relations and Cooperation’s director for economic development, Masotsha Mnguni, spoke at a G20 media briefing: “We do expect that the US will be represented at a head of state level. The expectation is that the incoming president will attend. I can confidently say that will happen.”
Q: Is it a big deal?
Very big. The G20 represents about:
- 85% of global gross domestic product (GDP).
- 75% of international trade.
- 60% of the world’s population.
Q: Which are the G20 countries?
There are 19 member countries and two blocs: the European Union and now the African Union. The countries are Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Türkiye, the UK, and the US. This is 21, but the nomenclature of the G20 remains.
Q: Is the G20 a single meeting in November 2025?
No, it’s a full year of meetings.
“Tens of thousands of delegates and support staff from the largest countries arrive in South Africa over the year-long presidency,” said Nguni.
Think of it as a one-year-long showcase for South Africa. Through the meetings, direct and indirect jobs will be created. The price tag will be between R1-billion and R2-billion, with much of it footed by sponsorships from the private sector. South Africa’s budget will be transparent in February.
The Treasury’s director-general, Duncan Pieterse, said: “From 1 December 2024 to 29 November 2025, there will be 130 virtual and in-person meetings across the country. It is a marathon of yearly international meetings to influence the global agenda and shape economic policy.
“It’s the premier global forum for discussing financial and global issues where developed and developing countries are represented,” he said.
Q: How do negotiations and decisions work?
With great complexity. The G20 is not a binding body but operates on the principles of collective action and moral suasion. Deputy Reserve Bank Governor Rashaad Cassim said the best way to understand the G20 was as a relay where each country passed the baton to the next on the understanding that the country in the chair (South Africa from 1 December) did not start with a clean slate. About 75% of the issues were an existing foundation, while about 25% were new ones that emerged or that the host country regarded as important.
South Africa is the fourth country in the Global South to hold the chair after Indonesia, India, and Brazil.
Read more: SA takes G20 helm amid global political instability and shifting world order
“We all know what needs to be taken forward. It’s about how we can move the dial,” said Cassim.
Nguni described the G20 as an “informal governance club”. There is an overlap in G7 (the world’s largest country bloc) and G20 issues that span political, security, global economic and financial governance. Based on the chairing roster, the G20 is managed at any point by a troika of countries: the current troika from 1 December is Brazil, South Africa and the US.
According to the first media briefing last week, South Africa works in concert with the African Union to shape an African agenda that includes the debt crisis and creating a more equitable, representative, and fit-for-purpose global order.
Q: What’s in it for South Africa?
Status and an opportunity to show what we can do as well as move the dial on global issues that are important to the Global South. The 2010 Fifa World Cup is a perfect example of how international events can work to enhance soft power, which can translate into growth and jobs. South Africa’s target is inclusive growth, industrialisation, employment and inequality. Other specific issues are food security (Brazil’s President Lula placed ending hunger at the top of his agenda), AI, and innovation for sustainable development.
Q: What are the big-ticket burning economic and financial issues?
Debt. And how to reschedule or forgive harmful African debt or provide concessional finance. This can crowd out climate financing for vulnerable places in the world, so it is a balancing act. Cross-border payment delays are a huge issue because of the Swift system, which is a hot-button topic for negotiation. India has made global cryptocurrency regulation a priority. Data disclosure on climate finance and general global standard-setting are considerable.
Q: How are the G20 meetings organised?
Take a breath. It’s a lot. Many working groups do the baseline negotiations before ministerial meetings where decisions are made (or not, in a fractured world). The finance track includes international financial architecture, infrastructure, sustainable finance, a global partnership for financial inclusion, international tax, and financial sector regulation. There are also “task forces” for health financing, hunger and poverty, and climate change. Each working group meets quarterly, while finance ministers and central bank governors have four meetings a year.
Q: Who runs things?
As Sherpas get you up a mountain, Sherpas guide the process. In South Africa, Department of International Relations and Cooperation Director-General Zane Dangor is the Sherpa, and he is assisted by two sous-sherpa: Ambassador Xolisa Mabhongo, the deputy director-general for global governance, and Advocate Nokukhanya Jele, who is President Cyril Ramaphosa’s legal advisor. With deftness, Sherpas can shepherd meetings to a standard view.
The G20 results in something called the “Johannesburg Declaration’, which is the document that sets out how the needle on better global governance has been moved (or not) in the year that South Africa is in the big G20 chair. If a declaration of consensus is not possible, then the chairperson of the G20 (President Cyril Ramaphosa) will issue a discussion summary. It’s essential to get to a declaration. Luckily, Ramaphosa is a good negotiator.
Q: With global uncertainty, war, and insecurity as the most significant geopolitical trends, is a successful G20 possible?
“The G20 works best when there’s a crisis,” said Cassim, who added that uncertain geopolitics made momentum difficult.
Q: How can you get involved?
There are many ways. There is a business meeting called the Business B20. Civil society will be organised into a social summit, which Brazil started, and will be carried forward to South Africa.
There is also a women’s meeting called the W20 and other sectoral gatherings, which are lobbying forums to ensure that the people don’t get left out of power politics. Mxolisi Mgojo and Nonkululeko Nyembezi chair the B20 while Cas Coovadia serves as Sherpa. DM